Pattern F · Baseline Profile

Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC

ARDMORE, OK · USDOT 1,516,024 · 68 power units · mid fleet

Baseline carrier profile

No recent fatal, no statutory coverage gap, no sustained pattern at the carrier-aggregate level. Limits of carrier-level analysis apply: individual driver behavior, route conditions, and specific cargo circumstances are not captured at this resolution.

SafeNY Risk Score

4.2

MODERATE

Primary risk factor: Crash

Confidence ●●●● (4 of 4 data sources verified)

Source: FMCSA Motor Carrier Census + SMS + L&I + MCMIS Crash + Inspection Records, snapshot 2026-05-01 · Computed 2026-05-12 · Outdated

SNRS is a decision-support score for legal-case evaluation. Statistical estimate only — not legal advice and not evidence of liability. See methodology.

If you were involved in a crash with this carrier, the data below may help you understand whether your case warrants legal attention. The lead form at the bottom of this page can connect you to an attorney specialist for case-specific evaluation.

SafeNY Underinsured Flag

Insurance coverage falls short of P90 fatal verdict estimate.

Policy limit on file: $1M. Statistical P90 fatal verdict in carrier's domicile state: $10.7M. SafeNY Coverage Gap: approximately $9.7M.

$9.7M gap; OK (Tier D) P90 fatal estimate exceeds filed coverage. Multi-defendant analysis (freight broker, shipper, maintenance contractor) commonly considered.

When carrier insurance is insufficient at P90, recovery to full damages typically requires a multi-defendant strategy — pursuing the freight broker, shipper, or maintenance contractor as co-defendants alongside the motor carrier itself.

Source: FMCSA L&I filings + SSR P90 (state-tier shifted)

Insurance & coverage

Active policies

1

Primary insurer

Northland Insurance Company

Liability limit on file

$1M

BIPD limit of $1,000,000 filed — common general-freight tier above federal minimum.

Source: FMCSA L&I filings (BMC-91 / BMC-91X / MCS-90) · Computed 2026-05-14 · Outdated

Crash record · 5-year window

Total crashes

7

Fatal

0

Injury

3

Last incident: 10 months ago

7 crashes over 5 years, no fatal records.

Night-driving crash pattern

The SafeNY Night-Driving Pattern: of 7 documented crashes in the past 5 years, 1 occurred in dark conditions (no street lighting, partial lighting, or unknown roadway lighting). That's 14.3% of this carrier's crashes vs the FMCSA dataset baseline of 25.7%.

14.3% dark-condition share consistent with national baseline (25.7%); no significant deviation detected.

Method: One-sample binomial test against 25.7% baseline (FMCSA SMS Crash File 2026-04 Snapshot, n≈259k national records). p = 0.489. Dark-condition driving is regulated under 49 CFR § 392.14 (hazardous conditions); federal Hours-of-Service rules at 49 CFR § 395 limit consecutive driving hours and overlap with night-driving fatigue management.

Source: FMCSA MCMIS Crash File · Computed 2026-05-14 · Outdated

Educational Settlement Severity Estimate (Non-Advisory)

The SafeNY SSR estimates the likely verdict range for a hypothetical crash scenario involving this carrier. Adjust severity and jurisdiction.

Risk decomposition

Five-factor breakdown of the SafeNY SNRS for this carrier, used to explain the composite score.

Driven primarily by C-factor (crash rate) at 5.3/10, below the mid-cohort median of 4.5.

Method: how this carrier's SafeNY SNRS was computed(expand for carrier-specific walkthrough)

The five factors below come from Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC's actual FMCSA records. Each factor is a 0–10 score; the composition produces a 0–10 SNRS smoothed against the prior month's value (α = 0.40). The Bayesian step below leaves exposure_M-PUD symbolic; the closed-form denominator and a worked example are on /methodology#shrinkage.

Step 1 — Bayesian-shrunk crash rate

This carrier has 7 documented crashes in the past 5 years (0 fatal). The cohort prior (mean fatal rate for similar-sized fleets) is 0.304 events per million power-unit-days; after Bayesian shrinkage with prior strength w₀ = 10, this carrier's adjusted rate is 0.300.

r^shrunk  =  10⋅0.304  +  710  +  exposureM-PUD  =  0.300\hat{r}_{\text{shrunk}} \;=\; \frac{10 \cdot 0.304 \;+\; 7}{10 \;+\; \text{exposure}_{\text{M-PUD}}} \;=\; 0.300

Step 2 — Five-factor SNRSraw composition (B-method)

SNRSraw  =  0.60⋅max⁡(C,N,M)  +  0.30⋅median⁡(C,N,M,D)  +  0.10⋅SSNRS_{raw} \;=\; 0.60 \cdot \max(C, N, M) \;+\; 0.30 \cdot \operatorname{median}(C, N, M, D) \;+\; 0.10 \cdot S
  =  0.60⋅max⁡(5.3,4.0,2.1)  +  0.30⋅median⁡(5.3,4.0,2.1,0.0)  +  0.10⋅1.4  =  4.2\quad\;=\; 0.60 \cdot \max(5.3, 4.0, 2.1) \;+\; 0.30 \cdot \operatorname{median}(5.3, 4.0, 2.1, 0.0) \;+\; 0.10 \cdot 1.4 \;=\; 4.2

C Crash 5.3 · N Negligence 4.0 · M Mechanical 2.1 · D Driver 0.0 · S Stability 1.4

Step 3 — EMA smoothing against last month's value

SNRS  =  α⋅SNRSraw  +  (1−α)⋅SNRSprev,α=0.40SNRS \;=\; \alpha \cdot SNRS_{raw} \;+\; (1-\alpha) \cdot SNRS_{\text{prev}}, \quad \alpha = 0.40

For Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC: SNRSraw = 4.2 → smoothed SNRS = 4.2. (Prior month's smoothed value is the EMA weight; the first month of data uses raw without smoothing.)

Cite this analysis

Four reference formats pre-filled for Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC (USDOT 1516024). For format guidance and worked examples, see /cite.

APA 7th edition(expand)
SafeNY. (2026). Safety analysis for Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC (USDOT 1516024). Retrieved [date], from https://safeny.com/trucking-accidents/asphalt-express-enterprises-llc-usdot-1516024
Chicago (author-date)(expand)
SafeNY. 2026. "Safety analysis for Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC (USDOT 1516024)." Accessed [date]. https://safeny.com/trucking-accidents/asphalt-express-enterprises-llc-usdot-1516024.
Bluebook (legal briefs)(expand)
SafeNY Safety Profile, Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC, FMCSA USDOT 1516024, SafeNY (last visited [date]), https://safeny.com/trucking-accidents/asphalt-express-enterprises-llc-usdot-1516024.
BibTeX(expand)
@misc{safeny_asphalt_1516024_2026,
  title        = {Safety analysis for Asphalt Express Enterprises LLC},
  author       = {{SafeNY}},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://safeny.com/trucking-accidents/asphalt-express-enterprises-llc-usdot-1516024}},
  note         = {USDOT 1516024; derived from FMCSA public records}
}

Related carrier analyses

Other carriers in the same domicile state, with comparable fleet size and jurisdiction tier, or with the highest current AttorneyValue signal nationally. Each link surfaces the most decision-relevant attribute of that carrier's record.

Carrier response opportunity

If you are an authorized representative of ASPHALT EXPRESS ENTERPRISES LLC, you may submit a formal response to this analysis under SafeNY's Governance Protocol. Responses found to be factually grounded are published alongside this analysis.

Response form: /governance/respond
Email: intel@safeny.com

Contact: research@safeny.com — for corrections, press, or research inquiries.

SafeNY.com is an independent, privately-operated trucking safety data resource. Not affiliated with the State of New York or any government agency. Data sourced from US Department of Transportation (FMCSA) public records. Methodology.

Data source: FMCSA Motor Carrier Census + SMS + L&I + MCMIS Crash File + Inspection Records

Methodology · v6.5.g

Carrier snapshot · SHA 89a6590d…

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